Population growth has slowed, but it has not ended. Decisions made today will determine whether world population grows by one billion, two billion, or almost four billion by 2050. Most growth will take place in urban areas of the developing world.
World population is still growing. Most people assume the “population bomb” has been defused. But while the rate of growth has slowed in most parts of the world, rapid growth is hardly a thing of the past. Our numbers still increase by 75 million to 80 million every year, the equivalent of adding another U.S. to the world every four years or so. Virtually all population growth in the next 45 years is expected to take place in the developing countries.
Tomorrow’s population size will be determined today. A certain amount of future growth is inevitable, but choices made today will determine whether human numbers—now at 6.8 billion—climb to anywhere between 8 billion and 10.5 billion by mid-century.
Population projections to 2050
Source: United Nations Population Division
Much depends on access to reproductive health services. All of the population projections above (except the constant fertility variant) assume that fertility will continue to decline in developing countries. In the fifty least-developed countries, largely in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, the medium variant assumes a sharp decline—from over 4.6 children per woman now to 2.5 children per woman in 2050. This in turn assumes that access to family planning will improve in these countries. But if this does not occur and fertility levels stay where they are now, world population would reach around 11 billion.
Fast facts:
- It took from the beginning of time until the early 19th century for human numbers to reach one billion; today, one billion people are added to the population in only 13 to 14 years. Subsequent billions are expected to arrive more slowly. Ultimately, population is expected to stabilize, as fertility falls into line with death rates worldwide.
- The rate of population growth peaked between 1965 and 1970 and is now declining in all regions.
- The less developed countries are expected to grow by just under 50% by 2050; the poorest countries will double in size over that period.
- By 2050, 9 out of 10 of the world’s young people will live in developing countries.
- Half the global increase in population will take place in just nine nations. In order of their expected contribution, they are: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, the U.S., Ethiopia and China.
- If recent trends continue as projected to 2050, virtually all of the world’s population growth will be in urban areas. In effect, the poor countries will have to build the equivalent of a city to accommodate one million people every five days for the next 40 to 45 years.
- During the next half century, many richer nations will lose population. Falling fertility and increasing longevity worldwide will expand the proportion of potentially dependent elderly people.